基于连续血糖监测数据的T2DM患者血糖波动特征提取与预警模型构建
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新郑华信民生医院

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Feature extraction and early warning model construction of blood glucose fluctuation in type 2 diabetes patients based on continuous glucose monitoring data
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Hopeshine-Minsheng Hospital of Xinzheng

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨基于连续血糖监测(continuous glucose monitoring,CGM)数据的2 型糖尿病(type 2 diabetes mellitus,T2DM)患者血糖波动特征提取方法,构建低血糖/高血糖预警模型。方法 2024年10月至2025年10月于新郑华信民生医院内分泌科共筛选246例T2DM患者,纳入98例。全部患者均佩戴CGM系统≥14 d,提取目标范围内时间(time in range,TIR)、平均血糖波动幅度(mean amplitude of glycemic excursions,MAGE)等12项波动特征;采用极端梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting,XGBoost)算法构建未来4 h内低血糖(<3.9 mmol/L)与高血糖(>13.9 mmol/L)预警模型,以7:3比例划分训练集与验证集,通过曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)评估模型性能,采用沙普利加性解释(Shapley additive explanation,SHAP)进行特征贡献度分析。结果 患者平均年龄(58.6±9.2)岁,糖化血红蛋白(glycated hemoglobin A1c,HbA1c)为(8.4±1.6)%,MAGE为(4.8±1.7)mmol/L,TIR为(67.2±18.4)%。低血糖预警模型验证集AUC为0.91(95%CI:0.86~0.95),敏感度为86.7%、特异度为88.4%;高血糖预警模型AUC为0.89(95%CI:0.84~0.93),敏感度为84.2%、特异度为87.1%。SHAP分析显示,夜间MAGE、最近2 h血糖斜率、目标范围以下时间(time below range,TBR)占比为低血糖核心贡献特征;餐后2 h血糖峰值、目标范围以上时间(time above range,TAR)占比、空腹C肽(fasting C-peptide,FCP)为高血糖核心贡献特征。结论 基于CGM多维度波动特征结合XGBoost算法可实现T2DM患者低血糖与高血糖的较高精度预警,模型可解释性良好。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore a method for extracting features of blood glucose fluctuations in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data, and to construct a hypoglycemia/hyperglycemia early warning model. Methods From October 2024 to October 2025, a total of 246 patients with T2DM were screened in the Department of Endocrinology of Hopeshine-Minsheng Hospital of Xinzheng, and 98 of them were included. All patients wore the CGM system for a duration of at least 14 days, and 12 fluctuation characteristics such as time in range (TIR) and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions (MAGE) were extracted. The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to construct early warning models for hypoglycemia (<3.9 mmol/L) and hyperglycemia (>13.9 mmol/L) within the next 4 h, and the training set and the validation set were divided in a 7 vs. 3 ratio. Furthermore, model performance was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC), and feature contribution analysis was performed using Shapley additive explanation (SHAP). Results The mean age of patients was (58.6±9.2) years, glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) was (8.4±1.6)%, MAGE was (4.8±1.7) mmol/L, and TIR was (67.2±18.4)%. The AUC of the hypoglycemia early warning model validation set was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.86?0.95), the sensitivity was 86.7%, and the specificity was 88.4%. The AUC of the hyperglycemia early warning model was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.84?0.93), the sensitivity was 84.2%, and the specificity was 87.1%. The SHAP analysis showed that nocturnal MAGE, the most recent 2-hour blood glucose slope, and the proportion of time below range (TBR) were the core contributing features of hypoglycemia. Meanwhile, the peak 2-h postprandial blood glucose and the proportion of time above range (TAR) were characteristics of the core contribution of fasting C-peptide (FCP) to hyperglycemia. Conclusion Based on the multi-dimensional fluctuation characteristics of CGM combined with XGBoost algorithm, a high-precision early warning of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia in T2DM patients can be achieved, and the model has good interpretability.

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睢凤玲,吕子笑,苗培霞,郭玉婷.基于连续血糖监测数据的T2DM患者血糖波动特征提取与预警模型构建[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(4):176-179

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  • 收稿日期:2026-07-31
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-10
  • 录用日期:2026-09-15
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-20
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