老年急性缺血性脑卒中患者院内感染风险因素及预测模型构建
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1.南阳市第二人民医院;2.南阳市第二人民医院 院感办 河南南阳473000

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Infectious risk factors in geriatric acute ischemic stroke and development of a predictive nomogram
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Nanyang Second People''s Hospital

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨老年急性缺血性脑卒中(acute ischemic stroke,AIS)患者发生院内感染的独立危险因素,构建可视化列线图预测模型,为临床早期识别高危人群、制订分层防控策略提供客观依据。方法 回顾性纳入南阳市第二人民医院2024年1月至2025年6月收治的131例老年AIS患者,依据WS/T 857-2025标准判定院内感染,将患者分为感染组(n=42)与非感染组 (n=89)。收集两组患者一般资料、基础疾病状态、脑卒中特征[美国国家卫生研究院卒中量表(National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale,NIHSS)评分、梗死体积]、侵入性操作史及住院相关指标。通过单因素分析筛选潜在关联变量后,行多因素Logistic回归确定院内感染的独立危险因素,基于回归结果构建列线图预测模型。以受试者操作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线及Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评估模型区分度与校准度,Bootstrap法进行内部验证。结果 131例入组患者院内感染发生率为32.06%(42/131),感染部位以呼吸系统(59.52%)及泌尿系统(26.19%)为主。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,意识障碍(OR=3.504)、吞咽困难(OR=4.129)、留置尿管(OR=4.419)及住院天数长(OR=1.324)均为老年AIS患者发生院内感染的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。基于上述变量构建的列线图模型的ROC 曲线的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.854(95%CI:0.789~0.919),Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验χ2=7.251,P=0.510,经Bootstrap 校准后模型AUC 仍达0.841。结论 意识障碍、吞咽困难、留置尿管及住院天数长均为老年AIS患者院内感染的独立危险因素,本研究构建的列线图预测模型效能稳定,可为临床开展个体化风险评估及分层防控提供参考。

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    Objective To explore the independent risk factors for nosocomial infection in elderly patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS), and to construct a visualized nomogram prediction model, providing objective basis for the early identification of high-risk populations and the formulation of stratified prevention and control strategies in clinical practice. Methods A total of 131 elderly patients with AIS admitted to Nanyang Second People’s Hospital from January 2024 to June 2025 were retrospectively enrolled. Nosocomial infection was determined according to the WS/T 857-2025 standard, and patients were divided into an infection group (n= 42) and a non-infection group (n=89). The general information, underlying disease status, stroke characteristics (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, infarction volume), invasive operation history and hospital-related indicators of the two groups of patients were collected. After screening potential associated variables through single-factor analysis, multiple-factor Logistic regression was used to determine the independent risk factors for nosocomial infection. Based on the regression results, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The discrimination and calibration of the model were evaluated using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and internal validation was conducted using the Bootstrap method. Results The incidence of nosocomial infection among the 131 enrolled patients was 32.06% (42/131), with respiratory tract infection (59.52%) and urinary tract infection (26.19%) being the predominant sites. The results of the multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that impaired consciousness (OR=3.504), dysphagia (OR=4.129), indwelling urinary catheter (OR=4.419), and prolonged length of hospital stay (OR=1.324) were all independent risk factors for nosocomial infection in elderly AIS patients (all P < 0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curve of the nomogram model constructed based on the above variables was 0.854 (95%CI: 0.789 - 0.919), the Hosmer- Lemeshow test χ2=7.251, P=0.510. After Bootstrap calibration, the AUC of the model still reached 0.841. Conclusions Impaired consciousness, dysphagia, indwelling urinary catheter, and prolonged length of hospital stay are all independent risk factors for nosocomial infection in elderly patients with AIS. The nomogram prediction model constructed in this study has stable performance and can provide a reference for clinical implementation of individualized risk assessment and stratified prevention and control.

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丁叶,朱沛.老年急性缺血性脑卒中患者院内感染风险因素及预测模型构建[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(3):189-194

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-25
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-01
  • 录用日期:2026-07-01
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-19
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