维持性血液透析患者肌少症风险预测模型的建立
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仪征市人民医院

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Development of a risk prediction model for sarcopenia in maintenance hemodialysis patients
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Department of Nephrology, Yizheng People''s Hospital

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    摘要:

    目的 构建维持性血液透析(maintenance hemodialysis,MHD)患者肌少症发生风险的列线图预测模型,旨在为临床早期识别肌少症高危人群提供参考工具。方法 纳入2024年1月1日至9月30日在仪征市人民医院接受规律MHD治疗的110例患者为研究对象,依据是否合并肌少症将其分为无肌少症组(83例)与肌少症组(27例);采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,LASSO)回归联合多因素Logistic回归筛选MHD患者发生肌少症的独立危险因素,给予筛选得到的预测变量构建肌少症发生风险的列线图模型。结果 最终纳入年龄、白细胞计数(white blood cell count,WBC)、体重指数(body mass index,BMI)、合并心脏瓣膜钙化(cardiac valve calcification,CVC)4项变量作为预测因子,成功建立MHD患者肌少症发生风险的列线图预测模型。临床决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis,DCA)显示,当列线图模型的预测概率阈值处于0~0.78时,应用模型指导临床筛查可使患者获得正向净获益。采用Bootstrap法进行1 000次自抽样完成模型内部验证,校正后偏倚校准曲线贴近理想拟合曲线,校准误差较验证前降低,提示模型具备良好的校准度与预测一致性;模型原始曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)值为0.913(95%CI:0.857~0.972),内部验证后AUC值为0.914(95%CI:0.862~0.971),验证前后模型的敏感度分别为0.852和0.854,特异度均为0.855。结论 本研究构建的MHD患者肌少症发生风险列线图模型区分度与校准度良好,可准确、高效地预测该人群的肌少症发生风险,为临床早期筛查高危患者提供量化参考。

    Abstract:

    Objective To develop a nomogram prediction model for the risk of sarcopenia in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, aiming to provide a reference tool for the early clinical identification of high-risk individuals for sarcopenia. Methods A total of 110 patients who received regular MHD treatment at Yizheng People’s Hospital from January 1, 2024 to September 30 were included as the research subjects. They were divided into the non-sarcopenia group (83 cases) and the sarcopenia group (27 cases) based on whether they had sarcopenia The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression combined with multivariate Logistic regression was employed to screen the independent risk factors for sarcopenia in MHD patients. Subsequently, a nomogram model for predicting the risk of sarcopenia was constructed using the screened predictive variables. Results Finally, the four variables of age, white blood cell count (WBC), body mass index (BMI), and combined cardiac valve calcification (CVC) were selected as predictors to successfully establish a column-line graph prediction model for the risk of myasthenia gravis in MHD patients. Clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that when the predicted probability threshold of the nomogram model was between 0?0.78, the clinical net benefit level of patients was positive. The nomogram was internally validated by Bootstrap resampling 1 000 times. In the validated model, the Bias-corrected calibration curve was closer to the ideal state, and the calibration error was reduced, suggested that the model had good calibration and predictive consistency. Additionally, the area under the curve (AUC) value of the model before validation was 0.913 (95%CI: 0.857?0.972), and the AUC value after validation was 0.914 (95%CI: 0.862?0.971). The sensitivities before and after validation were 0.852 and 0.854, respectively, and the specificities were both 0.855. Conclusion The risk prediction nomogram model for sarcopenia in MHD patients constructed in this study has good discrimination and calibration, and can accurately and efficiently predict the risk of sarcopenia in this population, providing a quantitative reference for early clinical screening of high-risk patients.

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严俊,王垚.维持性血液透析患者肌少症风险预测模型的建立[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(3):28-34

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  • 收稿日期:2026-05-15
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-26
  • 录用日期:2026-06-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-19
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