基于凝血功能和炎症标志物联合模型预测慢性心力衰竭并发深静脉血栓形成的价值
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北京中医药大学东直门医院洛阳医院

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The value of combined model based on coagulation function and inflammatory markers in predicting chronic heart failure complicated with deep venous thrombosis
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Luoyang Hospital of Dongzhimen Hospital,Beijing University of Chinese

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨凝血功能和炎症标志物联合模型对慢性心力衰竭(chronic heart failure,CHF)并发深静脉血栓形成(deep venous thrombosis,DVT)的预测价值。方法 选取2020 年2月至2024年10月北京中医药大学东直门医院洛阳医院收治的100例CHF患者,根据是否并发DVT分为血栓组(n=32)和非血栓组(n=68)。对比两组一般资料及实验室检测指标,经多因素Logistic回归分析筛选独立危险因素并构建Logistic预测模型,采用受试者操作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线及校准曲线评估模型效能。结果 多因素分析显示,年龄、D-二聚体(D-dimer,D-D)、纤维蛋白原(fibrinogen,FIB)、C反应蛋白(C-reactive protein,CRP)及降钙素原(procalcitonin,PCT)升高均是患者并发DVT的独立危险因素(均P<0.05);该模型预测患者并发DVT的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.965(95%CI:0.932~0.999);校准曲线及Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示该模型预测概率与实际观测值一致性良好,平均绝对误差为0.020,校准度较高(χ2=4.208, P=0.616)。结论 基于凝血功能和炎症标志物构建的联合模型可有效预测CHF患者并发DVT的风险。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the predictive value of combined model of coagulation function and inflammatory markers for chronic heart failure (CHF) complicated with deep venous thrombosis (DVT). Methods A total of 100 patients with CHF admitted to Luoyang Hospital of Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine from February 2020 to October 2024 were enrolled and divided into thrombus group (n=32) and non-thrombus group (n=68) according to the presence or absence of DVT. The general data and laboratory indicators of the two groups were compared. The independent risk factors were screened by multivariate analysis and the Logistic prediction model was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Results Multivariate analysis showed that age, D-dimer(D-D), fibrinogen(FIB), C-reactive protein(CRP) and procalcitonin(PCT) elevated were independent risk factors for patients with DVT (all P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of this model for predicting patients with DVT was 0.965 (95% CI: 0.932~ 0.999). The calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the predicted probability of the model was in good agreement with the actual observed value, with an average absolute error of 0.020 and a high degree of calibration (χ2=4.208, P=0.616). Conclusion The combined model based on coagulation function and inflammatory markers can effectively predict the risk of DVT in patients with CHF.

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杨玉娜.基于凝血功能和炎症标志物联合模型预测慢性心力衰竭并发深静脉血栓形成的价值[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(1):33-36

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  • 收稿日期:2026-02-02
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-10
  • 录用日期:2026-02-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-14
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