Logistic回归与决策树建立急性呼吸窘迫综合征患者并发急性肾损伤的风险预测模型
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江苏省中医院

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Establishment of risk prediction models for acute kidney injury in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome using logistic regression and decision tree models
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Jiangsu Province Hospital of Chinese Medicine

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    摘要:

    目的 分析急性呼吸窘迫综合征(acute respiratory distress syndrome,ARDS)患者并发急性肾损伤(acute kidney injury,AKI)的危险因素,并构建Logistic回归与决策树风险预测模型。方法 选取2022年4月至2025年4月江苏省中医院收治的160 例ARDS 患者作为研究对象,根据是否并发AKI,将其分为发生组(n=51)和未发生组(n=109)。收集两组患者的一般资料,采用多因素Logistic 回归分析筛选ARDS 患者并发AKI 的独立危险因素,采用SPSS Modeler 软件构建其决策树风险预测模型,并对比分析2 种模型的预测效能。结果 多因素Logistic回归分析显示,年龄、机械通气、休克、血肌酐(serum creatinine,Scr)、白细胞计数(white blood cell count,WBC)以及超敏C反应蛋白(high sensitivity C-reactive protein,hs-CRP)水平均为ARDS患者并发AKI的独立危险因素(均P<0.05);基于上述危险因素构建决策树风险预测模型,该模型纳入年龄、休克、Scr、WBC及hs-CRP 5个解释变量,共4层、13个节点,其中Scr是影响ARDS患者并发AKI最关键的因素。受试者操作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线分析显示,Logistic回归与决策树模型的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)分别为0.953 和0.987,DeLong 检验比较2 种模型AUC 差异有统计学意义(Z=2.467,P=0.0133)。结论 年龄、机械通气、休克、Scr、WBC及hs-CRP水平是ARDS患者并发AKI的独立危险因素,基于上述危险因素构建的决策树模型预测效能更优,可为临床早期识别ARDS并发AKI的高风险患者、制定并实施针对性干预措施提供临床参考。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and to construct logistic regression and decision tree risk prediction models. Methods A total of 160 patients with ARDS admitted to Jiangsu Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from April 2022 to April 2025 were selected as the research subjects. According to whether AKI occurred concurrently or not, the patients were divided into the occurrence group (n = 51) and the non-occurrence group (n = 109). General data of both groups were collected. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for AKI complicating ARDS. SPSS Modeler software was used to construct a decision tree risk prediction model, and its prediction efficiency was analyzed. Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age, mechanical ventilation, shock, serum creatinine (Scr), white blood cell count (WBC), and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were risk factors for AKI complicating ARDS (all P<0.05). A decision tree risk prediction model was constructed based on the risk factors. The model selected 5 explanatory variables including age, shock, Scr, WBC, and hs-CRP levels, with a total of 4 layers and 13 nodes, among which Scr was the most critical influencing factor. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the areas under the curve (AUC) of the Logistic regression model and the decision tree model were 0.953 and 0.987, respectively. DeLong test indicated a statistically significant difference in AUC between the two models (Z=2.467, P=0.0133). Conclusion Age, mechanical ventilation, shock, Scr, WBC, and hs-CRP levels are independent risk factors for AKI complicating ARDS. The decision tree model constructed based on the above risk factors has high prediction efficiency, which can provide a reference for clinical early identification of high-risk patients with ARDS complicated with AKI and implementation of targeted intervention measures.

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汪琳,杨继兵. Logistic回归与决策树建立急性呼吸窘迫综合征患者并发急性肾损伤的风险预测模型[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(1):27-32

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-19
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-03
  • 录用日期:2026-02-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-14
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