冠心病合并心房颤动患者PCI术后1年出血事件发生的影响因素及预测模型构建
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1.杭州市上城区人民医院;2.杭州市上城区笕桥社区卫生服务中心;3.杭州市丁兰中医门诊部

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Factors influencing 1-year bleeding events and development of a predictive model in patients with coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation after PCI
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1.Hangzhou Shangcheng District People''s Hospital;2.Shangcheng District Jianqiao Community Health Service Center;3.Hangzhou Dinglan TCM Outpatient Department

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨冠心病(coronary heart disease,CHD)合并心房颤动(atrial fibrillation,AF)患者经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(percutaneous coronary intervention,PCI)术后1年内发生出血事件的独立影响因素并构建预测模型。方法 回顾性收集2021 年1 月至2025 年12 月行PCI 的100 例CHD 合并AF 患者的临床资料,随访1 年,根据出血情况分为出血组(n=20)和非出血组(n=80)。通过Logistic回归分析筛选并构建列线图模型。通过受试者操作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线、校正曲线及决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis,DCA)评估模型效能。结果 术后1年出血发生率为20.00%(20/100)。多因素分析显示,既往出血史、D-二聚体(D-dimer,D-D)水平、HAS-BLED评分、国际标准化比值(international normalized ratio,INR)及血肌酐(serum creatinine,Scr)水平是发生术后出血的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。列线图模型的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.932,C-指数为0.856。Bootstrap法验证显示模型预测概率与实际发生率一致性良好,DCA证实模型具有较高的临床净获益。结论 影响CHD 合并AF患者PCI术后1年出血发生的独立影响因素包括既往出血史、D-D水平、HAS-BLED 评分、INR、Scr水平。本研究构建的预测模型具有良好的区分度与可靠性,可为该类患者术后出血风险的早期识别、个体化抗栓治疗方案的制定及长期随访管理提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To investigate independent risk factors for bleeding events within 1-year after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) and to establish a predictive model. Methods A retrospective study was conducted to collect clinical data from 100 patients with CHD and AF who underwent PCI between January 2021 and December 2025. Patients were followed for one year and categorized into a bleeding group (n=20) and a non-bleeding group (n=80) based on bleeding events. A logistic regression analysis was performed to screen and construct a nomogram model. The model""s performance was evaluated using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The incidence of bleeding within one year post-surgery was 20.00% (20/100). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that prior bleeding history, D-dimer (D-D), HAS-BLED score, international normalized ratio (INR), and serum creatinine (Scr) were independent risk factors of postoperative bleeding (all P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model was 0.932, with a C-index of 0.856. Internal validation using the Bootstrap method indicated good consistency between the predicted probability and the actual incidence. Furthermore, DCA confirmed that the model possessed high clinical net benefit. Conclusion Independent factors influencing postoperative bleeding within 1-year after PCI in patients with CHD and AF include prior bleeding history, D-D, HAS-BLED score, INR, and Scr. The predictive model established in this study demonstrates excellent discriminatory ability, providing scientific basis for early identification of postoperative bleeding risk, development of individualized anticoagulation strategies, and long-term follow-up management in this patient population.

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殷子杰,孙贇,陈秀慧,侯雪琴.冠心病合并心房颤动患者PCI术后1年出血事件发生的影响因素及预测模型构建[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(1):6-12

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-08
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-26
  • 录用日期:2025-12-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-14
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