乙型肝炎病毒相关性肝细胞癌术后早期复发的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
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南阳市中心医院

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Analysis of risk factors for early recurrence after surgery for hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma and construction of a predictive model
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Nanyang Central Hospital

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    目的 探究乙型肝炎病毒相关性肝细胞癌(HBV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma,HBV-HCC)术后早期复发的危险因素,并构建预测模型。方法 选取2021 年6 月至2024 年6 月于南阳市中心医院收治的行手术治疗的HBV-HCC 患者100 例,根据患者术后2 年内肿瘤复发情况将其分为复发组(n=30 例)和非复发组(n=70 例)。比较两组患者年龄、性别、糖尿病、肝硬化、饮酒、血小板计数(platelet count,PLT)<100×109/L、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio,NLR)>2.5、输血、手术切缘<1 cm、肿瘤大小、手术方式、术中出血量、微血管侵犯(microvascular invasion,MVI)、程序性死亡蛋白配体1(programmed death ligand 1,PD-L1)阳性、术后并发症、规律运动情况。结果 复发组手术切缘<1 cm、MVI阳性的患者占比以及术中出血量增多均显著高于非复发组(均P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析显示,手术切缘<1 cm、术中出血量增多、MVI阳性是HBV-HCC术后早期复发的独立危险因素[比值比(odds ratio,OR)分别为2.752、2.258、1.863,均P<0.05]。受试者操作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线分析显示,该模型预测值的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.914(95%CI:0.846~0.953),灵敏度为81.11%,特异度为92.32%。结论 手术切缘<1cm、术中出血量增多及MVI阳性均是HBV-HCC术后早期复发的独立危险因素。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the risk factors of early recurrence of HBV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV-HCC) after operation and to build a prediction model. Methods A total of 100 patients with HBV-HCC who underwent surgical treatment at Nanyang Central Hospital from June 2021 to June 2024 were selected. Based on the postoperative recurrence status, the cohort was stratified into a recurrent cohort (n=30) and a non-recurrent cohort (n=70). The age, sex, diabetes, liver cirrhosis,drinking, platelet count (PLT)<100×109/L, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR)>2.5, blood transfusion, margin<1 cm, tumor size, operation mode, intraoperative blood loss, microvascular invasion (MVI), positive programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1), postoperative complications and regular exercise were compared between the two groups. Results The rate of surgical margin<1 cm and positive microvascular invasion, as well as the intraoperative blood loss in the recurrent group were significantly higher than those in the non-recurrent group (all P<0.05). The results showed that the surgical margin<1 cm, intraoperative blood loss and microvascular invasion were the independent risk factindependentors for the early postoperative recurrence of HBV-associated HCC [odds ratio (OR) was 2.752, 2.258 and 1.863, all P<0.05]. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) predicted by the model was 0.914(95%CI: 0.846~0.953), the sensitivity was 81.11%, and the specificity was 92.32%. Conclusion Surgical margin<1 cm, increased intraoperative blood loss and positive MVI are all the independent risk factors for early postoperative recurrence of HBV-HCC.

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张理想.乙型肝炎病毒相关性肝细胞癌术后早期复发的危险因素分析及预测模型构建[J].生物医学工程学进展,2026,(1):13-17

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-28
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-14
  • 录用日期:2025-08-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-14
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